PTI – Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

Entries categorized as ‘Economy’

معاشی صورت حال اور حکومتی دعوے

December 29, 2006 · Leave a Comment

پاکستان میں گزشتہ سال معاشی ترقی کے حکومتی بلند بانگوں دعویوں سے قطع نظر اقتصادی ماہرین بڑھتے ہوئے تجارتی خسارے اور بجلی کی پیداواری صلاحیت میں عدم توسیع کے تناظر میں آئندہ چند برسوں میں معاشی مشکلات کی پیشن گوئی کررہے ہیں۔

اقتصادی ماہرین کے لیئے پاکستان کا تجارتی خسارہ جو پاکستان کے زرمبادلہ کے ذخائر سے زیادہ ہو گیا ہے اور گزشتہ سات سالوں میں ملک کی بجلی کی کل پیداواری صلاحیت میں ایک میگاواٹ کا اضافہ بھی نہیں ہوا دو ایسے اہم عناصر ہیں جو ملک کی معشیت پر منفی اثرات مرتب کر سکتے ہیں۔

Continue reading on: BBCUrdu

Categories: Articles & Reports · Economy · Pakistan

Economic might of Muslim world

December 24, 2006 · Leave a Comment

The key terms are ‘information society’, ‘knowledge based economy’ and ‘new growth theory’.

By Dr Farrukh Saleem

The 57-member Muslim-majority OIC held its third extraordinary session of the Islamic summit conference at Makkah Al Mukarramah. The world didn’t even take notice. The 22-member league of Arab states held its 28th Arab league summit in Khartoum. No one took notice. The six-member Arabian Gulf cooperation council held its twenty-sixth session in Abu Dhabi and the GCC supreme council made a ‘closing statement’. Did the world outside the GCC take notice? Has anyone even heard of the five-member Arab maghreb union?

Next. Does anyone know that there is the Islamic chamber of commerce and industry and that its HQ is in Karachi ? How many have heard of the organisation of Islamic capitals and cities, the sports federation of Islamic solidarity games, the Islamic shipowners’ association, the Islamic conference youth forum for dialogue and cooperation and the world federation of international Arab-Islamic schools?

Conclusion: One billion five hundred million Muslims, 23 per cent of humanity, have lost relevance to the productive world. Muslim political organisations don’t matter neither do our economic or social ones; as if we just don’t matter anymore.

Reason: Ninety-one per cent of world GDP is produced by non-Muslims (23 per cent of humanity produces less than nine per cent of the world GDP).

Continue reading on: The News

Categories: Articles & Reports · Economy

Food inflation hits double digit

December 23, 2006 · Leave a Comment

ISLAMABAD, Dec 22: Disruptions in supply of essential items, thanks to the increased government exports to the neighbouring countries and Sri Lanka, pushed food inflation beyond single digit in November in the capital and 18 major cities of the country.

The key kitchens items like potatoes, tomatoes and onions become dearer thus putting more pressure on the monthly budget of the income group earning Rs3,000 to Rs12,000.

Official figures made available to Dawn showed that the food inflation in Islamabad was recorded at 11.3 per cent, Rawalpindi 11.2 per cent, Attock 13.6 per cent, Mardan 11.9 per cent, Bannu 10.8 per cent and Peshawar 11.2 per cent.

Continue reading on: Dawn

Categories: Economy · Pakistan · Poverty

Rise in food, fuel prices push inflation up by 8pc

December 14, 2006 · Leave a Comment

Constant increase in food items and fuel prices pushed the domestic inflation up by 8.07 per cent in November 2006 against figures for the same month last year.

Inflation measured through consumer price index (CPI) went up by 0.73 per cent in November over the previous month. The month-on-month comparison indicated that prices of consumer items had been steadily rising during the month under review.

Figures released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed that the inflation increased by 8.29 per cent year during the first five months (July-Nov) of the fiscal year 2006 over the same period last year.

Food inflation, which rose by 10.62 per cent during November 2006 over figures for the same month last year, had pushed up the overall inflation, which would have a direct impact on low-income groups.

Continue reading on: Dawn

Categories: Economy · News Items · Pakistan · Poverty

Economy facing major risks: WB: Average inflation 7-7.5pc forecast

December 8, 2006 · Leave a Comment

ISLAMABAD, Dec 7: The World Bank has identified some ‘major risks’ to Pakistan’s economy in the long and short terms owing to continuously rising fiscal and current account deficits and structural bottlenecks.

“The debt dynamics are vulnerable to downturns, inflation target for the year will be missed and the performance of exports and revenue is worrisome,” says the World Bank in its outlook on Pakistan based on latest economic results up to October 2006. Based on current trends, World Bank projects that average inflation during the fiscal year 2006-07 would be in the range of 7-7.5 per cent.

Continue reading on: Dawn

Categories: Economy · Pakistan

Ideas-2006: what did it achieve?

November 29, 2006 · Leave a Comment

What is a cause for greater concern is the failure of our defence managers to understand that Pakistans policies are too defence-centric for our good.

By Zubeida Mustafa

THE government has billed the much hyped up Ideas-2006, the fourth exhibition of defence equipment to be held in Karachi last week, as a big success. The grand display of various weapon systems with indigenised names was said to be good for the countrys image. If nothing else, it was claimed that the exhibition proved beyond doubt that Pakistan had advanced technologically and could manufacture tanks and aircraft.

In the absence of technical evaluation from independent sources we cannot be sure how much of the defence manufacturing is local and how much it involves merely the skill of assembling various parts manufactured abroad as our car industry is doing. But Ideas-2006 had a negative impact in one important respect, apart from the traffic woes it created for the citizens of Karachi. It has focused attention sharply on the imbalance in the governments financial and policy priorities. Concern was voiced frequently in the talk shows held by television channels that the government is spending heavily on defence while the social sectors are being neglected.

This is not a baseless concern. Let us first take the argument that is directly related to Ideas-2006. An air vice marshal boasted in one programme that Pakistans arms exports will receive a fillip thanks to the exhibition. He said that we are exporting 200 million dollars worth of arms and that will offset somewhat our defence spending. One may well point out that the quantum of our exports is no more than a drop in the ocean being Rs 1.2 billion, even if we do not adjust the amount we spend on the import of parts and raw material for the manufacture of the exported weapons. And what is our defence budget? It was Rs 241 billion in 2005-06 and will rise to Rs 250 billion in the current fiscal year in fact it will be more when the revised figures are announced in June 2007.

That was the least worrying argument presented in defence of Ideas-2006. What is a cause for greater concern is the failure of our defence managers to understand that Pakistans policies are too defence-centric for our good. They always start with the premise that India is our enemy and if we do not build a feasible deterrence in the shape of a credible war machine and a nuclear capability we will make ourselves vulnerable to foreign aggression implying an Indian attack and destruction. One retired lieutenant general even said that this kind of security calls for a sacrifice from the people when they are denied facilities like health care, education and housing. The icing on the cake was his claim that the people are giving this sacrifice very willingly.

Continue reading on: Dawn

Categories: Articles & Reports · Economy · Pakistan

More of Keynes, again

November 28, 2006 · Leave a Comment

By Shahid Javed Burki

WE in Pakistan — and by that I mean those who make economic policies and those who comment on them — are not given to deep reflection. Why? There are several reasons. The country’s colleges and universities don’t teach economics, political science, sociology and anthropology the way they should be taught.

Consequently, those who enter public service either as politicians or government servants are poorly equipped to handle economic and social issues. Those who write on these issues from outside the government are equally ill-equipped to correctly analyse the situation or events on which they comment.

Continue reading on: Dawn

Categories: Articles & Reports · Economy · Education

Pakistan: Reforming the Education Sector

November 24, 2006 · Leave a Comment

Asia Report N°84
7 October 2004

Pakistan’s deteriorating education system has radicalised many young people while failing to equip them with the skills necessary for a modern economy. The public, government-run schools, which educate the vast majority of children poorly rather than the madrasas (religious seminaries) or the elite private schools are where significant reforms and an increase in resources are most needed to reverse the influence of jihadi groups, reduce risks of internal conflict and diminish the widening fissures in Pakistani society. Both the government and donors urgently need to need give this greater priority.

Recent attempts at reform have made little headway, and spending as a share of national output has fallen in the past five years. Pakistan is now one of just twelve countries that spend less than 2 per cent of GDP on education. Moreover, an inflexible curriculum and political interference have created schools that have barely lifted very low literacy rates.

In January 2002, President Pervez Musharraf’s government presented its Education Sector Reform (ESR) plan, aimed at modernising the education system. A major objective was to develop a more secular system in order to offset mounting international scrutiny and pressure to curb religious extremism in the wake of the 11 September 2001 attacks. But Pakistani governments, particularly those controlled by the military, have a long history of failing to follow through on announced reforms.

Executive Summary & Recoomendations: www.crisisgroup.org

Full Report

 

Categories: Articles & Reports · Economy · Education · International View · Pakistan

Forecast from The Economist

November 24, 2006 · Leave a Comment

General Pervez Musharraf, the president and chief of army staff, will continue to dominate the political scene in the forecast period, although his position is becoming more insecure. General Musharraf, who came to office in a military coup in 1999, retains the power to dismiss parliament and the prime minister (and thereby impose full military rule) in his capacity as chairman of the National Security Council. His firm control over the army remains his ultimate guarantor of power. The opposition is severely critical of his rule, and has been aggressively campaigning for a return to full democracy. Despite being weak, the opposition is gaining popularity. The government’s support for the US-led “war on terror” has raised political tensions within Pakistan, and militant groups in Waziristan and Baluchistan will continue to try to undermine federal rule. Real GDP will slow from 6.6% in fiscal year 2006/07 (July-June) to 6.1%, in 2007/08, largely owing to a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. High international oil prices, inflation and a widening current-account deficit remain the biggest threats to the economy.

Key changes from last update

Political outlook
An attack in late October by the Pakistani army on a Madrassa (Muslim religious school) in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) led to the deaths of over 80 religious students whom the Pakistani government alleges were terrorists. The move has angered the local population and is likely to lead to increased violence in the province.

Economic policy outlook
The Oil and Gas Development Company, Pakistan’s largest state-owned energy exploration company, is planning to double its budget and begin a series of overseas ventures for the first time. Strong real GDP growth will continue to force planners to seek new energy supplies.

Economic forecast
The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised up its forecast for real GDP growth in 2006/07 from 6.4% to 6.6%. The revision reflects our improved expectations for the monsoon; the agricultural sector will benefit from favourable weather conditions.

Source: The Economist

Categories: Economy · International View · Pakistan

PAC seeks briefing on loan write-off

November 23, 2006 · Leave a Comment

ISLAMABAD, Nov 21: The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) has summoned the governor of the State Bank and president of the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) to brief it on Wednesday about their policy of writing off loans.

The committee expressed concern over the fact that numerous influential defaulters were rescheduling and taking new loans from the financial institutions with impunity.

Finance Secretary Tanvir Ali Agha said continuous intervention of the government in the affairs of the public sector banks was responsible for the chronic problem, which must be checked to save the institutions from the onslaught of wilful defaulters.

PAC member Syed Qurban Ali Shah said the NBP had written off Rs18 billion loans to the owners of a tobacco company. It was not clear from the NBP’s list of defaulters whether they had got loans from the National Development Finance Corporation (NDFC), the Industrial Development Bank of Pakistan (IDBP) or some other institutions now merged into the NBP, he said.He alleged that the owners of the company had taken loans of billions of rupees in the name of their employees and fake companies in the 1980s and later refused to pay back the loans.

They were arrested by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and then released mysteriously after agreeing to pay Rs1.2 billion, he said.

“Nobody knows how much they owed to the NDFC and how much was written off or waived in settlement with NAB. The committee should summon all details in this regard,” he argued.

The committee took serious notice of the NBP’s move of sanctioning a Rs410 million loan to a textile mill in 2000 in breech of procedure. The loan was provided by the NDFC.

“I wonder whether there is any law in this country to check defaulters and many industrial giants have been getting their loans written off over the past four years,” said member Rai Mansab Ali Khan.

Full Story: Dawn (22nd Nov 2006)

Categories: Corruption · Economy · News Items · Pakistan

Promoting tourism in Pakistan

November 23, 2006 · 1 Comment

By Anwar Kemal
RECOGNISING the potential of tourism as a means of boosting national income in a relatively short time, the government has declared 2007 as “Visit Pakistan Year”. It has also set in motion a number of useful changes, including a liberal visa policy for visitors from “tourist friendly countries” and a generous depreciation allowance of 50 per cent for new investment in tourism.

Pakistan has an attractive coastline, three of the highest and most scenic mountain ranges in the world, cities that offer a variety of interesting products for sale, river plains, colourful deserts and many interesting historical and cultural sites. Our people are traditionally friendly and hospitable to strangers. So why is Pakistan one of the least frequented and most under-appreciated tourist destinations in the world?

The reported presence in Pakistan of some of the world’s diehard terrorists may have something to do with the dearth of tourists. A reputation for religious and cultural intolerance, undeserved by the population as a whole, does not help either. The third deficiency is that Pakistan lacks the infrastructure that a modern tourism industry demands. Power failures are common, speeding buses on crowded highways are a menace to passengers, pedestrians and smaller vehicles, the railway system is old, decent accommodation is scarce and costly, and the natural environment is becoming degraded.

Not surprisingly, in 2004 only 648,000 foreigners visited Pakistan, generating revenues of $186 million, as compared to India’s 3.5 million visitors who generated receipts of $6.1 billion. In 2006, the number of visitors to Pakistan increased to 798,000 but earnings, surprisingly, remained the same. The reason for the small volume of receipts is that a large proportion of the visitors are overseas Pakistanis, not genuine tourists.

Pakistanis, who frequently travel abroad, may wonder why countries with similar cultural and religious backgrounds are able to attract so many more tourists. For example, Egypt hosted 8.6 million tourists in 2005, who spent $6.5 billion, in spite of deadly bombing attacks in the Sinai, while over 17 million tourists are expected to visit Turkey and generate $16.5 billion in 2006.

Full Article: Dawn Editorial (21st Nov 2006)

Categories: Articles & Reports · Economy · Tourism

Going Nowhere

November 20, 2006 · Leave a Comment

by Imran Khan

As a cricketer I toured India several times between 1977 to 1989 and I felt that it was a country going nowhere, with its highly centralized and over-bureaucratized inefficient governance system. I had never seen such poverty anywhere in the world. The infrastructure was decaying and Delhi and Calcutta were so polluted that playing cricket there was not a pleasant experience.

Compared to India, Pakistan looked a developed country. Our economic growth rate and per capita income had been higher for the previous four decades. Though Pakistanis were crazy about Indian films, our television was far superior, and we would thrash them regularly at hockey, squash and cricket despite being seven times smaller. Not surprisingly, the Indians had a Pakistan complex.

In the last year my two visits to India have come as a bit of a shock. India has overtaken Pakistan in per capita income while its economy is growing robustly at 8%. Delhi is being cleaned up, while Bombay is one of the most expensive real estates in the world. Poverty is decreasing. But above all and what is most striking is the growing self-belief of Indians. The Pakistan complex is gone and the Indians see themselves as a future superpower, as, indeed, does the world. They view their future with optimism and hope.

India has achieved this remarkable turnabout due to the strengthening of their democratic institutions. The self-corrective mechanism inbuilt in democracy has led to the evolution of two vital institutions: the Election Commission and the Judiciary. The other great quality of democracy is its capacity of debate and consensus building. Hence, around a decade ago, the political parties came to a common economic policy consensus to open up the stagnant socialistic model that had existed since independence. This insulated the investors from the political process and paved the way for investment and growth.

Secondly, the weakening of the Congress party and the emergence of regional players allowed decentralization and devolution of power enabling provincial chief ministers to compete against each other for investment. It was this healthy competition that led to the emergence of Bangalore as a software-exporting city.

Additionally, and unlike Pakistan, India has no political uncertainty as a powerful independent judiciary and Election Commission have always ensured a smooth transfer of power. In this year’s election some 350 million people went to the polls, knowing that their vote mattered. Only three constituencies complained of irregularities and a sitting government gracefully conceded defeat.

In stark contrast, since the 90s Pakistan has been going around in circles and heading nowhere. Our institutions and our democracy are sadly in an advanced state of decay. According to the UN Human Development Index Pakistan has slipped 20 places to 142 behind Nepal (which had 1% literacy in 1947) and Bangladesh. During the 9/11 Commission hearings in the US Senate, it emerged that Pakistan’s state school structure had collapsed. According EFA (Educatio for All), Pakistan has not met any of its targets and is bottom of the pile along with sub-Saharan Africa. In my constituency, Mianwali, out of the 470 government schools, 20% exist only on paper (i.e. there is nothing on ground), while 50% are closed, as there are no teachers. What future does a country have which does not invest in its people while the tiny elite hogs all the country’s resources?

Additionally, while every country in the sub-continent has reduced its poverty, in Pakistan it is rising sharply – especially in the last few years. The governance system too is deteriorating as reflected by the finding of Transparency International; according to it corruption has gone up 20% in the last one year. And there is not much chance of governance improving when minister ships are not given on merit but dished out as political bribes. India, with its huge size has 26 federal ministers to Pakistan’s 136 army of ministers and those holding ministerial status.

The way things stand today there is little hope. We have a military dictatorship with a democratic façade propped up by its civilian collaborators. When a military dictator tries to gain political legitimacy he can only do so by destroying all state institutions – in the process doing far more damage than a straightforward dictatorship. Hence the constitution can only be mutilated through a pliant judiciary that endorses the doctrine of necessity. The Election Commission could only rig the elections to get the desired results by first installing a discredited election commissioner. When the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) is used for keeping crooked politicians in line and victimize the opponents, it means another institution bites the dust. The local government system too has been created to support the military dictator rather than devolve power to the grassroots. Not only has the system failed to empower the grassroots but it has also resulted in being far more corrupt and inefficient than the previous system. In India the governance system has improved considerably through a genuine devolution of power from the center to the provinces, to the districts and right down to the village level.

However, the greatest damage done to the country is when, to perpetuate military dictatorship the establishment chooses ‘controllables’ to fill the top slots in the country. Since the easiest to control are crooked politicians whose files are lying with NAB, they have been installed in the most important positions. Also controllable are those who are incompetent or who do not have any power base in the country. How can any country or even any institution work if such are the criteria of those running the show. Are we surprised today if there is a moral collapse and the message to the youth is that crime pays? No wonder the law and order situation is deteriorating at an alarming rate.

Perhaps the most damaging blow dealt to the country’s self-belief and self-esteem is the shameless way our leadership has abandoned its sovereignty and forced a reluctant nation to be co-opted in a phony and immoral war on terror. Since the days of the Cold War the US realized that it is much easier to control, pressurize and manipulate dictators to serve their interests rather than democracies. Hence, while lecturing the world on the merits of democracy the US has supported, amongst others, all four Pakistani military dictators. But even the US government must have been taken aback by the way the current military dictator obliged to fulfill every US wish. Hence the fundamental rights of Pakistani citizens were violated as they were picked up and handed over to the FBI without allowing them to appear in a court of law to prove their innocence. There were extra-judicial killings of others, while under US pressure our own soldiers and our own citizens are being killed in Waziristan every day in the so-called war on terror with far reaching adverse consequences for our federation. All this is being done under the Musharraf ‘no choice’ doctrine. The nation is being scared into submission and told that unless we bow to every US demand we will be ‘Tora Boraed’.

Moreover, to serve US interests and accept total subservience and loss of sovereignty, a new terminology has been invented to put to rest troubled consciences and moral outrage at the injustices being done against Muslims in Iraq, Palestine, Chechnya and Kashmir. New terms like ‘Pakistan First’, ‘pragmatism’ and ‘enlightened moderation’ are being coined to make slavery more palatable. In its attempt to convince the West that we are a moderate country the regime is promoting the blind aping of western culture. Hence a modern Muslim is not who has an enlightened understanding of Islam like the Great Iqbal but who is a western clone. Both Raza Shah in Iran and Kemal Ataturk in Turkey tried such superficial attempts at modernity by forcing western clothes on their people. Both failed. Can a country ever modernize when there is no quest for knowledge and when its education system is decaying?

Since 9/11, through the servile behavior and fear-driven policy U-turns of our current leadership, national self-confidence has been badly shaken and is at its lowest ebb. In fact, the very reason for the creation of Pakistan is being questioned. A few days ago while visiting India the leader of a major coalition party in government rubbished the Two-Nation Theory and hence the reason for our existence by claiming that the partition of India in 1947 was a great injustice to the people of the sub-continent. Such is our state of demoralization today that even the custodians of our ‘geographical and ideological frontiers’ are silent at this outrage by a leader of the coalition cobbled together and patronized by them. India, on the other hand, fiercely protects its sovereignty and allows no interference by the US in its internal affairs. When some US official visits India they meet only their counterparts in rank, while in Pakistan they are received by President downwards and every official literally falls on his knees to pay his respects. Can a nation without a clear vision, self-esteem and self-belief have a future?

Our country is extremely viable and has great potential only if our establishment realizes that our future lies in strengthening our institutions and not by destroying them by manipulation to concentrate all powers in one man. Sadly, our establishment has learnt nothing from its past mistakes and is condemned to repeat them again and again. Hence, the opposition has a vital role to play. It should cast aside its differences and fight for the independence of the three vital state institutions; judiciary, election commission, and the NAB to pave the way for democracy, political stability, and economic progress in the country.

Categories: Articles & Reports · Economy · Pakistan · Politics